2016 2Q

China's robust crude oil imports mask changing fuel dynamics (28 June 2016): China is a bigger concern for crude oil and products markets than the current worries about the British vote to leave the EU. While the news media continues its relentless focus on Brexit, there is mounting evidence of a shift in the dynamics of China's crude and fuel markets, which may have a far greater impact on global energy markets. On the surface crude imports by the world's No.2 consumer China look healthy enough, rising 16.5% to the equivalent of about 7.49 MMbpd in the first five months of the year compared to the same period last year.

Why oil is still headed as low as $10: Column (28 June 2016): Back in February 2015, the price of West Texas Intermediate stood at about $52/bbl, half of its 2014 peak. I argued then that a renewed decline was coming that could drive it below $20, a scenario regarded by oil bulls as unthinkable. But prices did fall further, dropping all the way to a low of $26 in February. Since then, crude rallied to spend several weeks flirting with $50/bbl, a level not seen since last year. But it won't last; I’m sticking to my call for prices to decline anew to $10 to $20.

MARKET WATCH: Post-Brexit fallout eases on oil prices (28 June 2016): Crude oil prices on the New York and London markets continued their post-Brexit decline on June 27, falling more than $1 in a continued reaction to last week’s vote by Britain to leave the European Union. The crude oil contract for August on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.31 on June 27 to settle at $46.33/bbl. The September contract dropped $1.29 to $47.02/bbl. The natural gas contract for July increased 5.4¢ to close at a rounded $2.72/MMbtu. The Henry Hub, La., gas price was $2.76/MMbtu, rising 9¢.

Aramco, SABIC plan joint study for crude-to-chemicals complex (28 June 2016): Saudi Aramco and Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) plan to conduct a joint feasibility study for development of a fully integrated crude oil-to-chemicals complex in Saudi Arabia. The proposed plant would use a crude oil-to-chemicals process derived from improved refining technology that mixes innovative configurations with proven conversion technologies to create an integrated petrochemical complex capable of maximizing chemical yield, transforming and recycling byproducts, driving efficiencies of scale and resource optimization, and diversifying Saudi Arabia’s petrochemical feedstock mix, the companies said.

Hornsea Project One, North Sea, United Kingdom (June 2016): Hornsea Project One is an offshore wind farm proposed by DONG Energy that will be located off the Yorkshire coast within the Hornsea Zone in the southern North Sea. Located in the Humber region, the project is part of a £6bn ($8.7bn) investment to transform the region into a hub for the UK's renewable energy sector. At 1.2GW, the project will be the world's biggest offshore wind farm and the first offshore wind farm to have more than 1GW of capacity.

Conference showed North Sea ‘very much open for business’ (15 June 2016): The UK oil and gas industry may be gripped by a downturn but a lot of positivity has emerged from the two-day conference organised by trade body Oil & Gas UK and which concluded today (June 15) in Aberdeen. Almost 500 delegates attended the “UKCS: Open for Business” themed event – sponsored by PwC – and heard about the initiatives underway to restore competitiveness to the North Sea, as well as commitments from UK and Scottish Government Ministers to a sustainable future for the UK Continental Shelf.

How might the US candidates adjust stances on energy? (20 May 2016): Relative silence on energy so far in the US presidential campaign provides a blank tablet for speculation. Positions of the leading candidates are clear but unsophisticated. Democrat Hillary Clinton thinks the world is warming dangerously from a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and would crush the coal business (she said so) and oil and gas industry (she hasn’t said so yet) in response. Republican Donald Trump doesn’t worry about CO2 elevation and promises to reemploy coal workers. The complex realities of climate change and sensible precaution lie somewhere between these extremes but receive little attention. Because climate politics has degenerated into a clash of uncompromi...

Alberta wildfires spread north, forcing evacuations from camps (17 May 2016): Wildfires raging across northern Alberta shifted back toward oil-sands installations north of Fort McMurray, forcing the evacuation of thousands of workers who have been trying to get production restarted after fires curbed output by more than 1 MMbpd. The reduced production will cut Alberta’s gross domestic product by about 0.33% this year, and erode Canada’s GDP by 0.06%, the Conference Board said. The rebuilding effort to replace the 2,400 homes and buildings in Fort McMurray destroyed by the fires will add about C$1.3 billion to the economy next year.

Crude oil increases as excess global stockpile seen shrinking (26 April 2016): Oil rose amid signs that a global surplus is gradually diminishing, even as markets remain oversupplied. Futures climbed as much as 2.4% in New York after slipping 2.5% Monday. BP CEO Bob Dudley, who in February joked that swimming pools might be needed to hold the global oil surplus, said Tuesday markets may re-balance by year-end. U.S. crude stockpiles probably expanded by 1.75 MMbbl last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Survey shows mix of climate views, not consensus (1 April 2016): Scientific consensus on climate change, claims to which propel arguments for radical energy reform, lacks the heft commonly attributed to it. Initial findings of a survey by the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University indicate the collective scientific mind remains less than fully resolved. Participating were 4,092 members of the American Meteorological Society, 53% of the total surveyed, of whom 37% described themselves as climate experts. Among key results: 29% of participants think change to the climate over the past 50 years is entirely due to human activity; 38% think most of the change is caused by human activity; 14% think the change is caused more or les...