EIA STEO Report

November 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Global oil supply. We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. Ongoing OPEC+ production cuts will offset production growth from non-OPEC countries and help maintain a relatively balanced global oil market next year. Although the conflict between Israel and Hamas has not affected physical oil supply at this point, uncertainties surrounding the conflict and other global oil supply conditions could put upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will increase from an average of $90 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2023 to an average of $93/b in 2024.

November 2023 EIA STEO Report

October 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Global oil markets. Global oil inventories in our forecast fall by 0.2 million b/d in the second half of 2023 (2H23) because a voluntary production cut from Saudi Arabia and reduced production targets among OPEC+ countries keep global oil production below global oil consumption. As a result, we expect upward pressure on crude oil prices, with the Brent spot price increasing to average $95 per barrel (b) in 2024.

October 2023 EIA STEO Report

September 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices. We expect the Brent crude oil price to average $93 per barrel (b) during 4Q23, up from $86/b in August. A decline in global oil inventories in the coming months supports the Brent price in our forecast. The price eases to an average of $87/b by the second half of 2024 because we expect global oil inventories to rise during that period.

September 2023 EIA STEO Report

August 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices. The Brent crude oil spot price averages $85 per barrel (b) in August in our forecast. Crude oil prices have increased since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and increasing global demand. We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, with the Brent price averaging $86/b in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up about $7/b from our July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast for the same period.

August 2023 EIA STEO Report

July 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices. We forecast that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $78 per barrel (b) in July. Crude oil prices gradually increase throughout our forecast, reaching about $80/b in 4Q23 and averaging about $84/b in 2024 because we expect that global oil inventories will decline over the next five quarters.

July 2023 EIA STEO Report

June 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Global oil markets. Following the OPEC+ announcement on June 4 to extend crude oil production cuts through 2024, we forecast global oil inventories to fall slightly in each of the next five quarters. We expect these draws will put some upward pressure on crude oil prices, notably in late-2023 and early-2024. We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average $79 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2023 (2H23) and $84/b in 2024.

June 2023 EIA STEO Report

May 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Global oil demand and prices. The Brent crude oil spot price fell from an average of $85 dollars per barrel (b) in April to close at $73/b on May 4. At the beginning of April, OPEC and partner countries (OPEC+) announced a cut to crude oil production of 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) through the end of 2023, which increased crude oil prices on expectations of tightening oil supplies. However, ongoing considerations about weakening global economic conditions, perceived risk around the global banking sector, and persistent inflation outweighed the initial increase in oil prices and have led to lower prices.

May 2023 EIA STEO Report

April 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices. The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $85 per barrel (b) in 2023, up $2/b from last month’s forecast. The higher price forecast reflects a forecast for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption. Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices.

April 2023 EIA STEO Report

March 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices: We expect that the Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $84/b in the second quarter of 2023 (2Q23) to $81/b in 4Q23 and then average $78/b in 2024. Although we expect global oil inventories will build throughout the forecast period, we expect that high demand for crude oil from refineries because of elevated refining margins will limit downward pressure on crude oil prices through 2Q23 as refiners maintain high levels of crude oil inputs to maximize distillate fuel production.

March 2023 EIA STEO Report

February 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices: The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $82 per barrel (b) in January, about $2/b higher than the average in December 2022. Oil prices rose during January in part because of the expectation of increasing oil demand as a result of relaxing COVID-19 restrictions and increasing mobility in China. Perceptions of a less severe recession and some improving macroeconomic conditions also likely contributed to rising crude oil prices over the past month.

February 2023 EIA STEO Report

January 2023 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices. We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will average $83 per barrel (b) in 2023, down 18% from 2022, and continue to fall to $78/b in 2024 as global oil inventories build, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.

January 2023 EIA STEO Report

December 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices: The spot price of Brent crude oil averaged $91 per barrel (b) in November. Although the average November Brent price was slightly lower than in October, daily spot prices reached almost $100/b on November 7, before ending the month at $86/b. The price declines were largely the result of market concerns about global economic growth, as well as COVID-related lockdowns in China that have reduced China’s oil demand. Brent crude oil spot prices are on pace to average $101/b in 2022.

December 2022 EIA STEO Report

November 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil production: On October 5, 2022, OPEC+ producers agreed to reduce crude oil production targets by 2.0 million barrels per day (b/d) from their previously stated targets beginning in November 2022. The announcement had a limited effect on our global oil production forecast in the October STEO when the cuts were first incorporated because we had already included an expectation that OPEC+ would not meet the previously stated production targets.

November 2022 EIA STEO Report

October 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

Winter Fuels Outlook: In our Winter Fuels Outlook, we forecast that average household expenditures for home heating fuels will increase this winter because of both higher expected fuel costs and higher energy consumption due to colder temperatures. Compared with last winter, in nominal terms, we forecast expenditures for homes that heat with natural gas will rise by 28%, heating oil by 27%, electricity by 10%, and propane 5% from October–March.

October 2022 EIA STEO Report

September 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $98 per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22) and $97/b in 2023. The possibility of petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth continues to create the potential for higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth creates the potential for lower prices.

September 2022 EIA STEO Report

August 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and other contributing factors. Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption.

August 2022 EIA STEO Report

July 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The possibility of economic activity being less robust than assumed in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption. Factors driving uncertainty about energy supply include how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises.

July 2022 EIA STEO Report

June 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Global macroeconomic assumptions in STEO are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021. A range of potential macroeconomic outcomes could affect energy markets in the forecast period. Factors driving energy supply uncertainty include how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers increase drilling.

June 2022 EIA STEO Report

May 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in both 2022 and 2023, following growth of 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in our forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 3.4% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021.

May 2022 EIA STEO Report

April 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 3.4% in 2022 and by 3.1% in 2023, following growth of 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in our forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 4.0% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021.

April 2022 EIA STEO Report

March 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 3.6% in 2022 and by 2.7% in 2023, after growing by 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global (formerly IHS Markit) macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in our forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 4.3% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023, compared with growth of 5.9% in 2021.

March 2022 EIA STEO Report

February 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) assumes U.S. GDP grew by 5.7% in 2021 and will grow by 4.2% in 2022 and by 2.8% in 2023. We use the IHS Markit macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in this forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 4.4% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2023, compared with growth of 5.8% in 2021.

February 2022 EIA STEO Report

January 2022 EIA STEO Highlight

The STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 raises questions about global energy consumption. U.S. real GDP declined by 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. Based on forecasts that use the IHS Markit macroeconomic model, we estimate U.S. GDP increased 5.7% in 2021 and that it will rise by 4.3% in 2022 and by 2.8% in 2023.

January 2022 EIA STEO Report

December 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant raises uncertainty about the level of energy consumption throughout the world compared with last month’s forecast. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 5.5% in 2021 and by 4.4% in 2022. The U.S.

December 2021 EIA STEO Report

November 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 5.4% in 2021 and by 4.2% in 2022.

November 2021 EIA STEO Report

October 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 5.7% in 2021 and by 4.5% in 2022. 

October 2021 EIA STEO Report

September 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 6.0% in 2021 and by 4.4% in 2022.

September 2021 EIA STEO Report

August 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 6.6% in 2021 and by 5.0% in 2022.

August 2021 EIA STEO Report

June 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. economy continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2021 and by 4.9% in 2022. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit. 

June 2021 EIA STEO Report

May 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Economic activity has increased significantly after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020. The increase in economic activity and easing of COVID-19-related restrictions have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 6.2% in 2021 and by 4.3% in 2022. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit. 

May 2021 EIA STEO Report

April 2021 EIA STEO Highlight

The April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply during the past year and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2021 and by 4.2% in 2022. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.

April 2021 EIA STEO Report

December 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

The December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago. GDP began rising in the third quarter of 2020, and this STEO assumes it will grow by 3.1% annually in 2021 from 2020. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit completed in early November.

December 2020 EIA STEO Report

November 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020 and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 4.4% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period a year ago. GDP began rising in the third quarter of 2020, and this STEO assumes it will grow by 3.7% from 2020 to 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.

November 2020 EIA STEO Report

October 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA forecasts that average household expenditures for all major home heating fuels, except heating oil, will increase this winter largely because of higher expected energy consumption. Average increases vary by fuel. Compared with last winter, EIA forecasts natural gas expenditures will increase by 6%, electricity by 7%, and propane by 14%. Home heating oil expenditures in EIA’s forecast fall by 10%, driven primarily by a combination of low crude oil prices and high distillate fuel oil supplies heading into the winter. EIA generally expects more space heating demand this winter compared with last winter based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that indicate colder winter temperatures.

October 2020 EIA STEO Report

September 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

The September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020. This STEO assumes U.S. gross domestic product declined by 4.6% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago and will rise beginning in the third quarter of 2020, with year-over-year growth of 3.1% in 2021. The U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook are based on forecasts by IHS Markit.

September 2020 EIA STEO Report

August 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

The August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply patterns in 2020. Uncertainties persist across the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) outlook for all energy sources, including liquid fuels, natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewables. The STEO is based on U.S. macroeconomic forecasts by IHS Markit, which assume U.S. gross domestic product declined by 5.2% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago and will rise from the third quarter of 2020 through 2021.

August 2020 EIA STEO Report

July 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020. Uncertainties persist across the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) outlook for all energy sources, including liquid fuels, natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewables. The STEO is based on U.S. macroeconomic forecasts by IHS Markit, which assumes U.S. gross domestic product declined by 6.4% in the first half of 2020 from the same period a year ago before rising from the third quarter of 2020 through 2021.

July 2020 EIA STEO Report

June 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

Although revisions to EIA’s forecasts in the June STEO are generally smaller than they have been in recent months, this forecast remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy supply and demand patterns in 2020, particularly for petroleum and other liquid fuels. Uncertainties persist across EIA’s outlook for other energy sources, including natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewables.

June 2020 EIA STEO Report

May 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by reduced oil demand because of COVID-19 mitigation efforts. Despite the April agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) to reduce production levels beyond the end of the STEO forecast period, crude oil prices have remained at some of their lowest levels in more than 20 years. Uncertainties persist across EIA’s outlook for other energy sources, including natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewables.

May 2020 EIA STEO Report

April 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

Although all market outlooks are subject to many risks, the April edition of EIA’s ShortTerm Energy Outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant changes in energy fuel supply and demand patterns. Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increase in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries.

April 2020 EIA STEO Report

March 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA delayed the release of the March STEO update by one day to incorporate recent significant global oil market developments. On March 9, Brent crude oil front-month futures prices fell below $35/b, a 24% daily decline and the second largest daily price decline on record. Prices fell following the March 6 meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partner countries, which ended without an agreement on production levels amid market expectations for declining global oil demand growth in the coming months. In addition to the following highlights, EIA has provided a short summary of the March STEO forecast in the crude oil section of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Review (PNGMR).

March 2020 EIA STEO Report

February 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will average 100.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020. This demand level is 0.9 million b/d less than forecast in the January STEO and reflects both the effects of the coronavirus and warmer-than-normal January temperatures across much of the northern hemisphere. EIA now expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will rise by 1.0 million b/d in 2020, which is lower than the forecast increase in the January STEO of 1.3 million b/d in 2020, and by 1.5 million b/d in 2021.

February 2020 EIA STEO Report

January 2020 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2020 and $68/b in 2021, compared with an average of $64/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $5.50/b lower than Brent prices through 2020 and 2021, compared with an average WTI discount of about $7.35/b in 2019.

January 2020 EIA STEO Report

December 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, up $3/b from October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $61/b in 2020, down from a 2019 average of $64/b. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020. EIA expects crude oil prices will be lower on average in 2020 than in 2019 because of forecast rising global oil inventories, particularly in the first half of next year.

December 2019 EIA STEO Report

November 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $60 per barrel (b) in October, down $3/b from September and down $21/b from October 2018. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in 2020, down from a 2019 average of $64/b. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020. EIA expects crude oil prices will be lower on average in 2020 than in 2019 because of forecast rising global oil inventories, particularly in the first half of next year.

November 2019 EIA STEO Report

October 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $59/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and then fall to $57/b by the second quarter of 2020, which is $5/b lower than forecast in the September STEO. Despite the recent increase in supply disruptions, EIA expects downward oil price pressure to emerge in the coming months as global oil inventories rise during the first half of 2020. EIA forecasts balances to tighten later in 2020 and expects Brent prices to rise to an average of $62/b in the second half of next year. The resulting forecast average price in 2020 is $60/b, $2/b lower than forecast in the September STEO. EIA’s October forecast recognizes a higher level of oil supply disruption risk than previously assumed, more-than-offset by increasing uncertainty about economic and oil demand growth in the coming quarters, resulting in a lowered oil price forecast.

October 2019 EIA STEO Report

October 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $59/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and then fall to $57/b by the second quarter of 2020, which is $5/b lower than forecast in the September STEO. Despite the recent increase in supply disruptions, EIA expects downward oil price pressure to emerge in the coming months as global oil inventories rise during the first half of 2020. EIA forecasts balances to tighten later in 2020 and expects Brent prices to rise to an average of $62/b in the second half of next year. The resulting forecast average price in 2020 is $60/b, $2/b lower than forecast in the September STEO. EIA’s October forecast recognizes a higher level of oil supply disruption risk than previously assumed, more-than-offset by increasing uncertainty about economic and oil demand growth in the coming quarters, resulting in a lowered oil price forecast.

October 2019 EIA STEO Report

September 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in August, down $5/b from July and $13/b lower than the average from August of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $62/b in 2020. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020.

September 2019 EIA STEO Report

August 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64 per barrel (b) in July, almost unchanged from the average in June 2019 but $10/b lower than the price in July of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $64/b in the second half of 2019 and $65/b in 2020. The forecast of stable crude oil prices is the result of EIA’s expectations of a relatively balanced global oil market. EIA forecasts global oil inventories will increase by 0.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and 0.3 million b/d in 2020.

August 2019 EIA STEO Report

May 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $71 per barrel (bbl) in April, EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $70/bbl in 2019and $67/bbl in 2020.
OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.3 mil.bbl/d in 2019, down by 1.7 mill.bbl/d from 2018. In 2020, EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.4 mil.bbl/d to an average of 29.8 mil.bbl/d. 

Natural gas production will averaged 90.3 Bcf/d in 2019, EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2020 to an average of 92.2 Bcf/d. 

May 2019 EIA STEO Report

April 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $66 per barrel (bbl) in March, EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $65/bbl in 2019and $62/b in 2020.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 mil.bbl/d in March, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production to average 12.4 mil.bbl/d in 2019, and 13.1 million b/d in 2020.
Natural gas production will averaged 91.0 Bcf/d in 2019, EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2020 to an average of 92.5 Bcf/d. 

April 2019 EIA STEO Report

March 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $64 per barrel (bbl) in February, EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $63/bbl in 2019and $62/b in 2020.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.9 mil.bbl/d in February, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production to average 12.3 mil.bbl/d in 2019, and 13.0 million b/d in 2020.
Natural gas production will averaged 90.7 Bcf/d in 2019, EIA expects natural gas production will continue to rise in 2020 to an average of 92.0 Bcf/d. 

March 2019 EIA STEO Report

January 2019 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $71 per barrel (bbl) in 2018, EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $61/bbl in 2019and $65/b in 2020.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (mil.bbl/d) in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production to average 12.1 mil.bbl/d in 2019, and 12.9 million b/d in 2020.
Natural gas production averaged to record high 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 90.2 Bcf/d in 2019, and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020. 

January 2019 EIA STEO Report

December 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (bbl) in November, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $61/bbl in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.5 million barrels per day (mil.bbl/d) in November, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 mil.bblb/d in 2018, up from 9.4 mil.bbl/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 mil.bbl/d in 2019.
Natural gas productionEIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, in 2019 to an average of 90.0 Bcf/d.

December 2018 EIA STEO Report

November 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel (bbl) in October, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $72/bbl in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.4 million barrels per day (mmb/d) in October, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.
Natural gas production averaged 86.9 Bcf/d in October, EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 83.2 Bcf/d in 2018, in 2019 to an average of 89.6 Bcf/d.

November 2018 EIA STEO Report

October 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $79 per barrel (b) in September, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $74/b in 2018 and $75/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in September, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average
11.8 million b/d in 2019.
Natural gas production averaged 85.1 Bcf/d in September, EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 82.7 Bcf/d in 2018. 

October 2018 EIA STEO Report

September 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in August, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in 2018 and $74/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in August, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018.
Natural gas production averaged 82.2 Bcf/d in August in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.0 Bcf/d in 2018. 

September 2018 EIA STEO Report

August 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018.
Natural gas production averaged 81.8 Bcf/d in July in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018. 

August 2018 EIA STEO Report

July 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in June, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in second half of 2018 and $69/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in June, up 0.1 million from the May level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 81.3 Bcf/d in 2018, and in 2019 to 84.5 Bcf/d.

July 2018 EIA STEO Report

June 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $77 per barrel (b) in May, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $71/b in 2018 and $68/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, up 80,000 b/d from the April level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 81.2 Bcf/d in 2018, and in 2019 to 83.3 Bcf/d.

June 2018 EIA STEO Report

May 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $72 per barrel (b) in April, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $71/b in 2018 and $66/b in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, up 120,000 b/d from the March level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 80.5 Bcf/d in 2018, and in 2019 to 83.3 Bcf/d.

May 2018 EIA STEO Report

April 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.74/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer
Brent crude oil
spot prices averaged
 $66 per barrel (b) in March, EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018.

April 2018 EIA STEO Report

March 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel (b) in February, a decrease of $4/b from the January level. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $62/b in both 2018 and 2019.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in February, up 230,000 b/d from the January level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 81.7 Bcf/d in 2018.

March 2018 EIA STEO Report

February 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in January, an increase of $5/b from the average in December.
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 10.2 million b/d in January, up 100,000 b/d from the December level.
Natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017. EIA forecasts that natural gas production will reach 80.3 Bcf/d in 2018.

February 2018 EIA STEO Report

January 2018 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64 per barrel (b) in December, an increase of $2/b from the average in November.
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history.
Natural gas production is forecast to average 80.4 Bcf/d 2018, a 6.9 Bcf/d increase from the 2017 level. 

January 2018 EIA STEO Report

December 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, an increase of $5/b from the average in October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018.
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.7 million b/d in November, an increase of about 360,000 b/d from the October average. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.7 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level.

December 2017 EIA STEO Report

November 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $58 per barrel (b) in October, an increase of $1/b from the average in September. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018.
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.3 million b/d in October, an increase of about 90,000 b/d from the September average. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.6 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level.

November 2017 EIA STEO Report

October 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $56 per barrel (b) in September, an increase of $4/b from the average in August. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $52/b in 2017 and $54/b in 2018, 
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.3 million b/d in September, an increase of about 250,000 b/d from the August average. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level.

October 2017 EIA STEO Report

September 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in August. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018.
U.S. crude oil production is estimated to have averaged 9.2 million b/d in August, down about 40,000 b/d from the July average.
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

September 2017 EIA STEO Report

August 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $48 per barrel (b) in July and almost $4/b higher than in July 2016. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018.
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.2 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. Natural gas production in 2018 is forecast to be 3.9 Bcf/d above the 2017 level.

August 2017 EIA STEO Report

July 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $46 per barrel (b) in June, $4/b decrease from the May average and the lowest monthly average since November of last year when prices averaged $45/b. 
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 3.1 Bcf/d in 2018

July 2017 EIA STEO Report

June 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $50 per barrel (b) in May, $2/b lower than the April average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.  
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 10.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average
32.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and 32.8 million b/d in 2018.
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.0 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

June  2017 EIA STEO Report

May 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in April, $1/b higher than the March average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. 
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 10.0 million b/d in 2018.  
Natural gas production is forecast to average 74.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

May 2017 EIA STEO Report

April 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $52/b in March, $3/b lower than the February average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. WTI crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. 
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018.  
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 0.8 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

April 2017 EIA STEO Report

March 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $55/b in February, largely unchanged from the average in January. 
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.4 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

March 2017 EIA STEO Report

February 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $55/b in January, a $1/b increase from December. This price was $24/b higher than the January 2016 average.  
U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016, and forecast to average 9.0 million b/d in 2017 and 9.5 million b/d in 2018. 
Natural gas production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 1.3 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. 

February 2017 EIA STEO Report

January 2017 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices averaged $53/b in December, a $9/b increase from November, and forecast to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018
U.S. crude oil production averaged 8.9 million b/d in 2016 and is forecast to average 9.0 million b/d in 2017 and 9.3 million b/d in 2018
Natural gas production averaged 72.4 Bcf/d in 2016. Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 1.4 Bcf/d in 2017 and by 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018.

January 2017 EIA STEO Report

December 2016 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/b in 2016 and $52/b in 2017.
U.S. crude oil production forecast to average 8.9 million b/d in 2016 and 8.8 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast.
Natural gas production to average 77.5 Bcf/d in 2016. In 2017, forecast production increases by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2016 level.

December 2016 EIA STEO Report

November 2016 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017 ($48/b in 4Q 2016 and 1Q 2017).
U.S. crude oil production forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast.
Natural gas production to average 77.3 Bcf/d in 2016. Forecast production increases by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2016 level.

November 2016 EIA STEO Report

October 2016 EIA STEO Highlight

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017, $1/b higher and $1/b lower than forecast in last month’s STEO, respectively.
U.S. crude oil production forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.6 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast.
Natural gas production to average 77.5 Bcf/d in 2016, a decrease of 1.6% from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. Forecast production increases by 3.7 Bcf/d in 2017.
U.S. household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, electricity, and propane will increase this winter (October 1 through March 31) compared with last winter.

October 2016 EIA STEO Report

September 2016 EIA STEO Highlight

Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $46/barrel (b) in August, a $1/b increase from July.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/b in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $1/b less than Brent in 2016 and 2017.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. Production is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.5 million b/d in 2017.
Natural gas working inventories were 3,401 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on August 26. This level is 8% higher than last year during the same week, and 11% higher than the previous five-year (2011–15) average for that week.

September 2016 EIA STEO Report

August 2016 EIA STEO Highlight

EIA estimates that the amount of electricity generated using natural gas reached a record high during July, surpassing the previous record set in July 2015.
Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $45/barrel (b) in July, a $3/b decrease from June.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $42/b in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to be slightly less than Brent in 2016 and the same as Brent in 2017. 
U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. Production is forecast to average 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and 8.3 million b/d in 2017.
Natural gas working inventories were 3,288 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on July 29. This level is 13% higher than last year during the same week, and 16% higher than the previous five-year (2011-15) average for that week.

August EIA STEO Report

July 2016 EIA STEO Report Highlight

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices this summer are forecast to average $2.25/gallon (gal), 2 cents/gal lower than forecast in last month’s STEO
U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. Production is forecast to average 8.6 million b/d in 2016 and 8.2 million b/d in 2017, both unchanged from last month’s STEO.
Natural gas working inventories were 3,179 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on July 1. This level is 20% higher than a year earlier, and 23% higher than the previous five-year (2011–15) average for that week.
Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $48/barrel (b) in June, a $2/b increase from May.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to be the same as Brent in 2016 and in 2017.

July 2016 EIA STEO Report 

EIA STEO Reports

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