Apr 2021

GLOBAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: Data provided by Construction Boxscore - After a tumultuous year, many active capital projects have been deferred, delayed or even abandoned. After excluding projects that have been put on hold, Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database is tracking nearly 1,300 projects around the world in the refining, petrochemicals and gas processing/LNG sectors. At approximately 40%, the Asia-Pacific region is the leader in active projects, followed by the Middle East and the U.S. Asia has also been the leader in new project announcements over the past year. Globally, new project announcements have increased for the past four months. (Source: HP)

Goldman: Oil To Hit $80 On Largest Ever Demand Jump (28 April 2021): Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to realize the biggest jump ever over the next six months, the investment bank said on Wednesday, keeping its bullish forecasts for oil prices this summer. Higher demand for travel and acceleration of vaccinations in Europe are set to result in “the biggest jump in oil demand ever, a 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) rise over the next six months,” Reuters quoted Goldman Sachs as saying in a note to clients. Goldman Sachs continues to see oil rising to $80 per barrel this summer and says that “The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated,” as carried by FXStreet. At the beginning of this month, Goldman also issued a bullish note, saying that it anticipated strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July. (Source: Oil Price)

Halliburton Introduces New Borehole Imaging Technology (27 April 2021): Halliburton Company announced a new wireline logging service that helps operators acquire more accurate well data to better evaluate production potential called StrataXaminer. The tool delivers high-resolution images of the reservoir structure to identify bedding, fracture patterns, fault zones and potential flow barriers with increased accuracy. Obtaining high resolution images in oil or synthetic-based fluid systems has been an industry challenge for decades. StrataXaminer has ten different operating frequencies and customers can select any three frequencies to record simultaneously. This dynamic range allows operators to customize the image quality based on the formation type, fluid system, and record in a single pass. (Source: World Oil)

Renewable Energy Firm Could Be China’s Biggest IPO In 2021 (26 April 2021): The renewables unit of China Three Gorges Corporation has just received approval to list shares on the Shanghai stock exchange in what could become the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in China if it happens this year, according to Bloomberg data. Last week, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved applications for IPOs from three companies, including the one from China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co., Ltd. The unit, part of the largest hydropower producer China Three Gorges Corporation, announced last year its intention to raise as much as US$3.85 billion (25 billion Chinese yuan) in Shanghai. China Three Gorges Renewables has filed a prospectus with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, saying it plans to sell as much as 8.57 billion shares, but did not specify how much money it looks to raise, Bloomberg reports. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, a 2021 initial public offering from China Three Gorges Renewables could make it the biggest share sale in the country this year if the US$3.85 billion funds-raising goal from last year is any indication. (Source: Oil Price)

Could We Harness The Tremendous Power Of Deep-Ocean Volcanoes? (25 April 2021): Scientists have found that volcanoes deep in the ocean discharge so much energy potential when they erupt that they could theoretically power the whole of the United States.  Scientists at the University of Leeds in the UK have gathered data via remotely operated vehicles from deep-sea volcanic activity in the Northeast Pacific. They found that ocean volcanoes were as intriguing to study as volcanoes on land, although the observer doesn’t get as spectacular views from ocean-erupting volcanoes as from those on land. The University of Leeds scientists suggest in their research, published this week in the journal Nature Communications, that submarine volcanoes create the so-called hydrothermal megaplumes when they erupt. The researchers estimate that extremely high rates of energy are being discharged during those eruptions. “The rate of energy released and required to carry ash to the observed distances is extremely high – equivalent to the power used by the whole of the USA,” the University of Leeds said about the research carried out by Dr Sam Pegler, from the School of Mathematics, and Dr David Ferguson, from the School of Earth and Environment. (Source: Oil Price)

The Biggest Threat To Russia’s Arctic Oil Ambitions (24 April 2021): The collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical victory for the United States and a disaster for Russia which suffered politically, economically, and socially. Although citizens enjoyed more individual freedoms, the quality of life decreased substantially as state institutions collapsed and basic services disappeared. In the early 2000s, Moscow started exerting more influence over its mining sector which increased the state’s income substantially. The production of raw materials from Russia’s rich soil of which oil is by far the most important has provided the resources for the modernization of the society. Therefore, Moscow must maintain a steady supply of exports and revenue. According to a government strategy document cited by Kommersant, it is likely that the pre-pandemic level of oil production won't be matched. Russia’s oil industry was able to reach a post-Cold War record in 2019 when the sector produced 11.3 mbpd which is approximately 560 million tonnes. Production has decreased substantially due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, Russia's free-floating exchange rate helped cushion the negative effects of decreased sales because oil deals are usually executed in dollars. (Source: Oil Price)

U.S. Oil Producers Issue The Most Debt And Equity Since August (23 April 2021): Higher oil prices and low interest rates have prompted listed independent U.S. oil producers to raise in March the most financing via debt and equity issues since August last year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Friday. The EIA used data from industry intelligence provider Evaluate Energy and found that the listed U.S. firms issued a total of $4.4 billion in debt and equity last month. This amount was the highest since August 2020 and higher than the five-year (2016–2020) median of $2.4 billion, the EIA said. The administration, however, warned that the findings of its analysis may not be indicative of the whole U.S. oil industry right now because private companies do not have to report their debt-raising moves. The two key reasons for the highest debt and equity issuance in seven months are the higher crude oil prices and the low interest rates. “Since crude oil prices began increasing, U.S. crude oil producers have been raising debt and equity to refinance debts, resume drilling activities, or purchase acreage,” the EIA said. (Source: Oil Price)

How Accurate Are Peak Oil Demand Projections? (22 April 2021): Jet fuel and petrochemicals are expected to fuel crude demand this decade, while oil demand in the transport sector is set to peak by 2026, one year earlier than originally anticipated. Goldman Sachs believes oil demand will peak in 2026, while BP Plc believes the highest global demand growth is already over, and International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks the peak could come later, in 2030. However it’s framed, it is clear that the oil and gas industry is facing a turbulent future. The adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is expected to increase sharply over the next decade, driving down demand for oil to power road transportation. According to Deloitte, we can expect a CAGR of 29 percent for the EV industry between now and 2030, with sales expected to increase from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million by 2025, and 31.1 million by 2030. It is thought that China will account for around 49 percent of the global EV market share, with Europe following at 27 percent and the USA with a 14 percent market share. Developed countries are expected to drive EV demand over the next decade until growth levels out in the 2030s. (Source: Oil Price)

Why Is Most Oil Found In Deserts And The Arctic? (21 April 2021): Which prompts the trillion-dollar question: Why is most of our oil found in deserts and Arctic areas? The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), the crown jewel of the American wilderness in the northeast corner of Alaska, holds a staggering 12 billion barrels of oil, or 27% of U.S. proven oil reserves of 43.8 billion barrels. Also, why has Big Oil generally been giving the Arctic a wide berth? Virtually no major oil companies bid on ANWR's more than one million acres after the Trump administration auctioned off drilling rights on January 6 in a last-gasp effort to open up the refuge for drilling. (Source: Oil Price)

Why Dogecoin Won’t Fall Into Bitcoin’s Energy Trap (20 April 2021): Dogecoin is ridiculous, and that’s the whole point. The cryptocurrency that started out as a joke is now a meme come to very lucrative life, with nearly $50 billion worth of dogecoins in circulation today. In fact, the quirky cryptocurrency is red hot, and its value has skyrocketed more than 6,000% this year, making it the fifth most valuable cryptocurrency in the world.  The joke started on December 6, 2013, when a pair of software engineers decided to lampoon bitcoin, which keeps itself and its creator shrouded in mystery and takes itself and the enigma extremely seriously. In contrast, dogecoin was intended to be open and accessible for the masses. To celebrate this lowbrow everyman sentiment, the creators named their cryptocurrency after the doge meme that was ruling the internet back in those halcyon days of yore. And now, what began as a meme-branded internet jokes has become a bona fide crypto asset, all thanks to an active and enthusiastic internet fan base centered around an oddball Reddit community that has championed the cryptocurrency and carried out dogecoin fundraisers for a huge and hilariously diverse number of causes from charitable giving to crowdfunding a dogecoin sponsorship for Nascar driver Josh Wise. (Source: Oil Price)

Goldman projects transportation fuel demand will peak in 2026 (16 April 2021): By ANDRES GUERRA LUZ AND ELIZABETH LOW (Bloomberg) -- The bank brought forward its forecast for peak oil demand in the transportation sector by one year to 2026, if not sooner, largely due to the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. Overall crude consumption will keep expanding this decade due to jet fuel and petrochemicals, but growth will be at an “anemic” pace past 2025. Goldman is the latest to reevaluate what the end of demand growth will look like for oil. Among the most aggressive calls is that from BP Plc, which said last year that the era of oil demand growth may already be over, while the International Energy Agency has taken a more conservative view than BP, seeing demand plateau from around 2030. Most recently, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. warned of the “severe” risks for oil companies not preparing for an accelerated energy transition. If governments move aggressively to cut greenhouse emissions in line with the Paris Climate Accord, oil consumption would start to decline as early as 2023. (Source: World Oil)

Nigeria Set To Start-up 100 Oil & Gas Projects By 2025 (16 April 2021): As many as 100 oil and gas projects are set to start in Nigeria by 2025, accounting for 23 percent of all projects starts in the industry in Africa within the next five years, data and analytics company GlobalData said in a new report. Petrochemical projects will hold the highest share of new startup projects in Nigeria through 2025, with 28 projects, followed by 25 expected upstream oil and gas projects, 24 refinery projects, and 23 midstream projects, according to GlobalData estimates. In the upstream, some of the notable projects include the deepwater Bonga North oilfield and the onshore conventional gas Okpokunou Cluster Development. Bonga North is currently in its Front End Engineering Design (FEED) stage and is expected to start operations by 2025. Cluster Development is at a feasibility stage and is expected to begin operations by 2024, GlobalData said. Projects in Nigeria's refining sector will also be closely watched as the biggest African economy is eager to reduce its reliance on fuel imports, revamp its old refineries, and build new ones. The 650,000 barrel per day Lagos I refinery is a key project expected to start operations in 2022 and become the largest oil refinery in Africa. (Source: Oil Price)

This Strategic Shift Could Make Big Oil Much More Profitable (15 April 2021):At a certain point in its lifecycle, every industry faces its moment of reckoning with growing pressure to transform due to factors such as increasing competition, changing consumer preferences, government policy, and other secular headwinds. The transformation usually takes the shape of improved supply chain discipline as well as streamlining business operations in order to achieve better operating margins. For the oil and gas industry, the moment of truth has finally arrived. Years of weak benchmark prices, shrinking margins and massive capital flight are forcing the sector to seriously rethink the way it does business, with energy companies increasingly turning toward tech heavyweights for help in cutting costs and streamlining operations. A good case in point is last year's partnership between Haliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Accenture Plc. (NYSE:ACN). For years, Haliburton, one of the world's largest oilfield services companies, has been plagued by shrinking margins and chronic underperformance. (Source: Oil Price)

The U.S. Power Sector Has Reduced Emissions By 52%: The U.S. power sector has reduced emissions by 52 percent from levels projected 15 years ago, and is now “halfway to zero,” a New Berkeley Lab study showed, as the Biden Administration is targeting to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035. The new research from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzed historical trends and EIA’s projections for emissions in the power sector to see how much progress has been made. “Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, who is the lead author of the study. “But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels – we are now ‘halfway to zero.’” Technology advancement and low-carbon policies were the key drivers in the reduction of the emissions compared to the forecasts made 15 years ago, according to the study. (Source: Oil Price)

Will Rising Middle East Oil Prices Harm Global Demand Recovery? (13 April 2021): As we continue to kick the prospect of global economic recovery down the road of 2021, caution remains the buzzword of the oil markets. The less changes month-to-month, the more important the role of secondary factors – narratives spun for the benefit of oil producers or refiners, veiled strategies to get the market where the money is for the oil market’s greatest. As we shall see, Middle Eastern OSPs increasingly exhibit the willingness of producers to maximize profits in a global market that grows slower than expected. Corroborating this, the OPEC production quota increases have been rather tame, setting both May and June 2021 at 350kbpd and July 2021 at 440kbpd. Throughout this period, Saudi Arabia will restore the 1mbpd it had pledged to cut back in February. This means that by July 2021, i.e. the peak of the summer season where most refiners usually prefer to run maximum capacity, OPEC will only be producing the same amount as they planned for November-December 2020. (Source: Oil Price)

Offshore Oil Is Much Greener Than You May Think (12 April 2021): Offshore oil has built some well-deserved bad rap over the decades because of oil spills, and it has frequently been the specific target of protest action from environmentalists. But if we’re talking about emissions, the truth about offshore oil will shock some: they’re much lower than other forms of oil production. The fact may not be universal but, as per an Energy Intelligence report that quotes executives from Shell and BHP, it remains a fact for much of the industry. There are several reasons for that, and these commonly have to do with the size of the offshore deposits and their operators’ cost control and environmental protection efforts. If you take a look at a global map of the hotspots in oil exploration, you will notice that with the notable exception of U.S. shale, they are all offshore. Brazil’s pre-salt zone will be on this map, as will Guyana’s newly discovered massive fields. West Africa will also be on the map. And Malaysia and Brunei just recently signed a deal to jointly explore for oil and gas in the deep waters along their maritime border. (Source: Oil Price)

Eni’s Latest Oil Discovery Could Be Big For Angola (11 April 2021): Italian firm Eni has made a new light oil discovery off the coast of Angola after exploration activities recommenced following a year of pandemic restrictions. The discovery, made on Tuesday, is in Angola’s deepwater Block 15/06. Eni believes the exploration well, drilled at 500 metres in the Cuica exploration prospect, could hold as much as 200 to 250 million barrels of oil and presents the second big oil discovery in the area.  "The well-head location, intentionally placed close to East Hub’s subsea network, will allow a fast-track tie-in of the exploration well and relevant production, thus immediately creating value while extending the Armada Olombendo FPSO production plateau. It is expected that production will start within six months after discovery," Eni stated. Eni, which has been an active part of the country’s oil industry since 1980, produces around 120,000 bpd of oil in Angola. The firm has announced an anticipated $7 billion investment in Angola by 2025 in the areas of research, production, refining and solar energy, with the objective of cutting carbon emissions, job creation and diversifying the economy. (Source: Oil Price)

The World Is One Step Closer To Commercial Nuclear Fusion (10 April 2021): The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is the largest nuclear fusion experiment in the world. The megaproject is a collaborative effort funded and run by seven members: the European Union, China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, with the United Kingdom and Switzerland participating through The European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), a massive lineup of members which altogether represents 35 countries, half the citizens in the world, and a whopping 85% of global GDP. The project, which involves a massive-scale tokamak that began construction last year, spans 42 hectares in Saint Paul-lez-Durance, southern France--approximately the size of 60 soccer fields.  This gargantuan megaproject has been considered as one of humanity’s best shots at achieving commercializable nuclear fusion. While nuclear fusion has been achieved before, it has always consumed considerably more energy than it produces. Fusing atoms, the process that fuels our sun, is many times more powerful than splitting atoms--the process currently used in nuclear power production. What’s more, nuclear fusion can be achieved without emitting any greenhouse gases or using any radioactive nuclear fuel, a process which creates hazardous waste that can threaten human health for millennia--not to mention put a huge financial strain on the taxpayers who are funding its maintenance. (Source: Oil Price)

Russia: Pandemic Could Continue Affecting Oil Demand Until 2024 (9 April 2021): The pandemic could continue to impact global oil demand until 2024, while the decarbonization plans in major European economies could arise as a new threat to Russia’s oil industry, according to a draft document of Russia’s government seen by Reuters. According to the estimates in the document about the prospects of Russia’s oil industry through 2035, global oil demand could continue to suffer through 2023 or 2024. This year, global oil demand is expected to rise by 5.9 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last year’s demand of 90.4 million bpd, as per OPEC’s estimates in its March Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). Before the OPEC+ ministerial meeting last week, the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) forecast in its latest base-case scenario demand growth of 5.6 million bpd for 2021, or 300,000 bpd lower than the estimate in the OPEC monthly report. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also sees this year’s demand growth at around 5.6 million bpd. (Source: Oil Price)

Big Oil Set To Return To Profit In 2021 (8 April 2021): Vitol, Shell and Exxon are all expected to announce profits in Q1 2021 following a turbulent 2020. The three companies are profiting from increased oil demand and a rise in oil prices, giving analysts hope for a strong year in oil and gas.  Shell announced this week that it expects to make its first profit from oil production in the first quarter of 2021 since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The company’s upstream unit, which mainly manages crude exploration and production, has gained from the surge in oil prices over the past few months. Shell’s statement comes despite targets being hindered by the winter storm that hit Texas in February, decreasing the company’s production by around 20,000 bpd of oil in the first three months of the year, reducing its expected earnings by around $200 million. Shell was hit hard as oil demand decreased in Q2 of 2020, despite steadily picking up again in the second half of the year before stricter pandemic restrictions were reintroduced. Although Shell remained stable overall, its upstream unit suffered a loss of $1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2020. (Source: Oil Price)

Optimism Grows Over Oil Demand Recovery (7 April 2021): OPEC and partners are betting on a significant boost in oil demand over the coming months as member states get ready to ramp up oil production.  OPEC, Russia, and their allies are planning to increase oil production by 2.1 million bpd by as early as July this year, suggesting the confidence they have in a market rebound. The organization’s output cuts of 7 million will be eased significantly each month between now and July. Saudi Arabia is also expected to ease its voluntary output cuts to increase production by 1 million bpd by July. The announcement to ease restrictions comes unexpectedly as the oil industry is once again suffering from increased Covid-19 restrictions as Europe and parts of Latin America go into a third wave of the pandemic. Oil prices have dropped to the lowest in almost two weeks as European lockdown measures continue to be extended, leaving the market unsure of upcoming demand trends. Futures in New York fell 4.6 percent on Monday, from $64.86 a barrel on April 1 to $62.15, which decreased oil prices to below the U.S. crude’s 50-day moving average. (Source: Oil Price)

Hedge Funds Capitalized On Oil Price Pullback (6 April 2021): Money managers continued to take profits in petroleum futures last week, after oil prices sharply pulled back in the second half of March, halting the nearly three-month-long gradual rise in oil prices. According to data from exchanges compiled by Reuters columnist John Kemp, hedge funds and other portfolio managers changed little their overall position in the six most-traded oil-linked futures and options contracts, and were small buyers of a net equivalent of 10 million barrels in those contracts. Brent and WTI contracts saw some light buying in the week to March 30, but most of those position changes were likely due to the profit-taking from the previous reporting week to March 23, when heavy sell-offs in oil dominated the market. Hedge funds continue to be more bullish than bearish on oil, with long positions outnumbering shorts in a five-to-one ratio, Kemp noted. (Source: Oil Price)

Is The U.S. Finally Embracing Tidal Energy? (5 April 2021): The United States has made the first step toward harnessing the potential of wave energy, a powerful source of renewable energy which researchers have been studying for decades. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued last month a license for what would be the first commercial-scale, utility grid-connected wave energy test site in the United States. Oregon State University received that license to build and operate the PacWave South testing facility as the industry is developing technology and devices potentially capable of harnessing the power of ocean waves. Despite decades of studies, wave energy is still little developed—both in the U.S. and elsewhere—because researchers are still looking at ways to reconcile feasibility and costs in a complex marine environment. In theory, the potential is enormous. In practice, wave energy will need a lot more testing and technology development if it hopes to become a viable renewable energy source. (Source: Oil Price)

Russia Is Being Left Behind In The Energy Transition (4 April 2021): When it comes to climate change and the need to update and innovate in the face of changing weather patterns, Russian President Vladmir Putin’s strategy is simple: deny, deny, deny. While other fossil-fuel dependent economies scramble to diversify or race to build up clean energy infrastructure in a bid to put themselves at the forefront of the coming renewable revolution, Russia has taken the opposite approach: the world’s largest nation is sitting tight and waiting to be the last man standing in a shrinking fossil fuels market. While Russia, with its massive land area and enviable geopolitical positioning, is extremely resource-rich, its oil is more costly to extract than other oil superpowers. Nevertheless, Putin is trying to outlast them all as they are forced to transition away from the oil due to falling prices and political pressure. The world is still decades away from weaning itself off fossil fuels and there will potentially be even more money to be made as the competition begins to fall away. The calculation Russia needs to make is when will its oil industry move from being a profit driver to a burden as demand plateaus and then falls. (Source: Oil Price)

Uranium Prices Poised To Rally (3 April 2021): The uranium market is emerging from years in the doldrums as the overhang from the nuclear disaster in Japan is cleared and global demand picks up steam. The spot price for U3O8 moved above $30 per pound for the first time this year as uranium producers and mine developers hoover up above-ground inventories and reactor construction continues apace. Two new research notes from BMO Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley say today’s price marks a floor and predict a rally in prices over the next few years to the ~$50 level by 2024. The stars seem to be aligning for a new phase of nuclear energy investment with the US, China and Europe bolstering the bull case for the fuel this month. Although nuclear energy was not mentioned explicitly in the $2 trillion Biden infrastructure proposal released today, its federally mandated “energy efficiency and clean electricity standard” is hardly achievable without it.  (Source: Oil Price)

U.S. LNG Exports To Asia Hit Record Highs (2 April 2021): Since the fall of 2020, the United States has significantly boosted its liquefied natural gas exports to the top LNG-importing region, Asia, to the point of setting record highs in recent weeks and competing with Qatar for supplying the fuel to the biggest LNG buyers. Below-normal winter temperatures in north Asia—the home of the world’s top three LNG importers Japan, China, and South Korea—led to high demand for gas in recent months, while the recovery of industrial activities from the pandemic also helped to push up demand. According to estimates from Refinitiv cited by Reuters, American exports of LNG to the top three importing nations reached 3.2 million tons in February 2021, which was two and a half times the previous highest monthly export levels. U.S. LNG exports to Asia were already surging last year compared to 2019, despite the pandemic and the lull in demand in the spring and summer months, when U.S. exports and liquefaction volumes were very low. (Source: Oil Price)

Could Bitcoin Solve The Oil Flaring Problem? (1 April 2021): As governments aim to curb carbon emissions from gas flaring, Bitcoin data centers offer a way to use this energy instead of letting it go to waste, in return for the digital currency.  Gas flaring, a byproduct of fracked shale production, produces around 1 percent of global carbon emissions at present. Companies burn the gas off at the well site, rather than using it as an energy source, because of its unprofitable nature. The alternative option is simply to vent the gas into the atmosphere, releasing methane and adding to harmful greenhouse gasses that have a knock-on effect on the environment. However, several companies are calling for an end to gas flaring within the next decade and looking to find other uses for this energy. Bitcoin producers realized this gas could be a great source of energy for small, transportable cryptocurrency data centers. One of the biggest problems faced by digital currency producers is the high price of electricity needed to farm the currency. But if this energy can be found cheaper from a product that would not otherwise be used, it could present the perfect solution for both industries. In 2019, it was discovered that Bitcoin required more energy than the entire country of Switzerland for mining. This figure increased in 2020 and it is estimated that the Bitcoin network consumes around 80 terawatt-hours per year. (Source: Oil Price)