November 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
In October, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $2.82, or 3.0%, m-o-m, to an average of $91.78/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $3.89, or 4.2%, m-o-m, to $88.70/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $3.96, or 4.4%, m-o-m, to average $85.47/b. The DME Oman front-month contract fell by $4.06, or 4.3%, m-o-m, to settle at $89.31/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened in October by 7¢ to average $3.23/b.
October 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $7.27, or 8.3%, m-o-m to average $94.60/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $7.48, or 8.8%, m-o-m to $92.59/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $8.11, or 10.0%, m-o-m to average $89.43/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by $6.90, or 8.0%, m-o-m to settle at $93.37/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in September by 63¢ to average $3.16/b.
September 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $6.27, or 7.7%, m-o-m to average of $87.33/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $4.94, or 6.2%, m-o-m to average $85.10/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $5.29, or 7.0%, m-o-m to average $81.32/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by $5.30, or 6.5%, m-o-m to settle at $86.46/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by 35¢ m-o-m to average $3.78/b.
August 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $5.87, or 7.8%, m-o-m to an average of $81.06/b in July. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $5.18, or 6.9%, m-o-m to $80.16/b, and NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $5.76, or 8.2%, m-o-m to average $76.03/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by $6.25, or 8.3%, m-o-m to settle at $81.16/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in July m-o-m by 58¢ to average $4.13/b.
July 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined by 63¢, or 0.8%, m-o-m to average $75.19/b in June. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by 71¢, or 0.9%, m-o-m to $74.98/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by $1.35, or 1.9%, m-o-m to average $70.27/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by 13¢, or 0.2%, m-o-m to settle at $74.91/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened by 64¢ m-o-m to average $4.71/b in June.
June 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $8.31, or 9.9%, m-o-m to average $75.82/b in May. The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $7.68, or 9.2%, m-o-m to $75.69/b, and NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by $7.82, or 9.8%, m-o-m to average $71.62/b. The DME Oman front-month contract declined by $8.69, or 10.4% m-o-m, to settle at $74.78/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened by 14¢ m-o-m to average $4.07/b in May.
May 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
In April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $5.68, or 7.2%, m-o-m to average $84.13/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $4.16, or 5.3%, m-o-m to $83.37/b, and the NYMEX WTI frontmonth contract increased by $6.07, or 8.3%, m-o-m to average $79.44/b. The DME Oman front-month contract rose by $5.13, or 6.5%, m-o-m to settle at $83.47/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $1.91 m-o-m to average $3.93/b.
April 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b.
March 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by 26¢, or 0.3%, m-o-m in February to average $81.88/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by 37¢, or 0.4%, m-o-m to $83.54/b and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.30, or 1.7%, m-o-m to average $76.86/b. In contrast, the DME Oman front-month contract increased by $1.08, or 1.3%, m-o-m reaching $81.97/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened again in February by 93¢ m-o-m to average $6.68/b.
February 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) crude rose $1.94, or 2.4%, m-o-m in January to average $81.62/b. The ICE Brent front-month increased by $2.57, or 3.2%, to average $83.91/b, and NYMEX WTI rose by $1.64, or 2.1%, to average $78.16/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened m-o-m, rising by 93¢ to average $5.75/b. The market structure of ICE Brent strengthened in January, and the first-to-third month spread flipped into backwardation.
January 2023 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $79.68/b in December, a drop of $10.05 m-o-m, or 11.2%. The ICE Brent front-month fell $9.51, or 10.5%, to average $81.34/b, and NYMEX WTI dropped by $7.87, or 9.3%, to average $76.52/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread narrowed further m-o-m, contracting by $1.64 to average $4.82/b. The market structure of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI weakened again as the first-to-third month spreads moved into contango in December.
December 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $89.73/b in November, falling m-o-m by $3.89, or 4.2%. The ICE Brent front-month fell $2.74, or 2.9%, to average $90.85/b, and NYMEX WTI decreased by $2.64, or 3.0%, to average $84.39/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread narrowed further m-o-m, contracting by 10¢ to average $6.46/b. The market structure of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI weakened significantly, and the first-to third month spreads moved temporarily into contango in late November.
November 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell m-o-m by $1.70, or 1.8%, in October to average $93.62/b. The ICE Brent front-month rose $3.02, or 3.3%, to average $93.59/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $3.23, or 3.9%, to average $87.03/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread narrowed m-o-m, contracting by 21¢ to average $6.56/b. The market structure of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI strengthened and the first-to-third month spreads moved into stronger backwardation. The combined futures and options net long positions of hedge funds and other money managers increased in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI.
October 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
September 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil spot prices fell for the second-consecutive month in August. The North Sea Dated benchmark declined by $13/b month-on-month (m-o-m), while Dubai fell by almost $7/b. The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $6.65, or 6.1%, to settle at $101.90/b. The ICE Brent front-month declined by $7.38, or 7.0%, to average $97.74/b. NYMEX WTI fell by $7.90, or 7.9%, to average $91.48/b. Consequently, the Brent-WTI futures spread widened by 52¢ to an average of $6.26/b.
August 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket fell $9.17, or 7.8%, m-o-m in July to average $108.55/b. Oil futures prices remained highly volatile in July, amid a sharp drop in liquidity. The ICE Brent front month declined $12.38, or 10.5%, in July to average $105.12/b and NYMEX WTI declined by $14.96, or 13.1%, to average $99.38/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened further by $2.58 to average $5.74/b.
July 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
World oil demand growth in 2022 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment at 3.4 mb/d. Oil demand in the OECD is estimated to increase by 1.8 mb/d, while non-OECD is seen growing by 1.6 mb/d. Total oil demand is projected to average 100.3 mb/d. The first quarter of this year was revised higher, amid better-than-anticipated oil demand in the main OECD consuming countries. However, with the resurgence of COVID-19 in China and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, oil demand in 2Q22 is revised lower.
June 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket increased $8.23, or 7.8%, to settle at $113.87/b. Oil futures prices rallied in May driven by tightening oil products markets, near-term global oil supply risks amid continued geopolitical tensions in Europe, as well as the prospect of a firm recovery in demand after Chinese authorities started to gradually ease COVID-19-related lockdown measures. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose $6.04, or 5.7%, in May to average $111.96/b and NYMEX WTI increased by $7.62, or 7.5%, to average $109.26/b.
May 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket dropped by $7.84, or 6.9%, to settle at $105.64/b. Crude futures prices declined m-o-m in April, amid elevated market volatility, fuelled by persistent uncertainty regarding market outlook. The ICE Brent front month fell $6.54, or 5.8%, in April to average $105.92/b and NYMEX WTI decreased by $6.62, or 6.1%, to average $101.64/b. Consequently, the Brent/WTI futures spread widened 8¢ to average $4.28/b.
April 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket price increased $19.53, or 20.8%, to settle at $113.48/b. Oil futures prices witnessed elevated volatility due to the uncertain short-term oil supply and demand outlook. The ICE Brent front month rose $18.36, or 19.5%, to average $112.46/b and NYMEX WTI gained $16.63, or 18.1%, to average $108.26/b. Consequently, the Brent/WTI futures spread widened further by $1.73 to average $4.20/b.
March 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil spot prices increased strongly in February compared to the previous month, supported by strong physical crude market fundamentals, dissipating fears about COVID-19, and an escalating geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe that raised concerns about a near-term oil supply disruption resulting in a rally in oil futures markets. The OPEC Reference Basket rose by $8.81, or 10.3%, to settle at $94.22/b.
February 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil spot prices rebounded in January, compared to the previous month, as oil futures markets surged. Crude prices were supported by strong global oil market fundamentals amid dissipating fears about the impact of the COVID-19 Omicron variant and geopolitical risks, which raised concerns about near-term oil supply. The OPEC Reference Basket increased $11.03, or 14.8%, to settle at $85.41/b in January, its highest monthly value since September 2014.
January 2022 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket fell $5.99, or 7.5%, to settle at a three-month low of $74.38/b. Crude oil futures prices extended losses in December, declining on both sides of the Atlantic, with the ICE Brent front month down $6.05, or 7.5%, to average $74.80/b and NYMEX WTI declining by $6.96, or 8.8%, to average $71.69/b.
December 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.74, or 2.1%, in November to average $80.37/b, amid lower prices of almost all medium and heavy sour grades in Asia, Europe, and the Americas. The year-to-date (y-t-d) ORB value reached $69.45/b, which is $28.71, or 70.4%, higher compared with the same period last year of $40.75/b.
November 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased $8.23 or 11.1%, m-o-m, in October to average $82.11/b. Year-to-date, the ORB averaged $68.33/b, for a gain of $27.77, or 68.4%, compared to the same period last year. In the futures market, the ICE Brent front-month contract rose $8.87 or 11.8%, m-o-m, to average $83.75/b in October, while NYMEX WTI increased $9.68 or 13.5%, m-o-m, to average $81.22/b.
October 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $3.55 or 5.0% m-o-m in September to settle at $73.88/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB was up by $26.21, or 64.5%, to average $66.83/b compared with the same period last year. The ICE Brent front-month rose $4.37, or 6.2%, m-o-m in September to average $74.88/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $3.83, or 5.7%, m-o-m to average $71.54/b.
September 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $70.33/b in August, representing a decline of $3.20 m-o-m, or 4.4%. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ORB was $25.42, or 62.8%, higher, averaging $65.93/b. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlantic moved sharply lower in August, reaching their lowest levels since last May, as concerns about short-term Asian oil demand, mixed economic data, and the prospect of higher global oil supply triggered a sell-off.
August 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $73.53/b in July, representing an increase of $1.64, or 2.3%, m-o-m, the highest level since October 2018. Year-to-date, the ORB was up $25.43, or 63.8%, compared with the same period last year, to average $65.27/b. Crude oil futures prices also extended gains in July, buoyed by the outlook for strong oil market fundamentals. The ICE Brent front month increased by 88¢, or 1.2%, m-o-m to average $74.29/b in July, while NYMEX WTI gained $1.08, or 1.5%, m-o-m to average $72.43/b.
June 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $3.67, or 5.8%, m-o-m in May to average $66.61/b, the highest since May 2019. Year-to-date, the ORB was up 56.8%, averaging $62.16/b, compared to $39.65/b on average over the first five months of 2020. Crude oil futures prices rose in May, with ICE Brent increasing $2.98, or 4.6%, to average $68.31/b, and NYMEX WTI gaining $3.45, or 5.6%, to an average of $65.16/b. Consequently, the Brent-WTI spread narrowed 47¢ to average $3.15/b in May.
May 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
Spot crude prices fell in April for the first time in six months, with North Sea Dated and WTI easing m-o-m by 1.7% and 1%, respectively. Similarly, the OPEC Reference Basket price declined $1.32, or 2.0%, in April, to settle at $63.24/b. However, year-to-date, the ORB was 41.6%, or $17.91, higher than the same period in 2020 at $60.97/b. Crude oil futures prices fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with the ICE Brent front month down 37¢, or 0.6%, to average $65.33/b, and NYMEX WTI front month fell by 65¢, or 1.0%, to average $61.70/b. Consequently, the Brent-WTI spread widened in April to an average of $3.62/b.
April 2021 OPEC Report Highlight
The global oil demand contraction in 2020 is revised lower by about 0.1 mb/d compared to last month’s MOMR, now showing a contraction of about 9.5 mb/d y-o-y, with total world oil demand at 90.5 mb/d. In 2021, world oil demand growth is expected to increase by about 6.0 mb/d y-o-y, representing an upward revision of about 0.1 mb/d from last month’s report. Indeed, oil demand in the 2H21 is projected to be positively impacted by a stronger economic rebound than assumed last month, supported by stimulus programmes and a further easing of COVID-19 lockdown measures, amid an acceleration in the vaccination rollout, largely in the OECD region.
December 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $2.53, or 6.3%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to stand at $42.61/b in November. Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB has averaged $40.75/b, down by $23.07 compared to the same period last year. Spot crude prices bounced back in November, following a rally in crude futures contracts after positive news on COVID-19 vaccines raised optimism about a recovery in oil demand. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlantic settled higher in November, with front-month ICE Brent increasing $2.46, m-o-m, to average $43.98/b, and NYMEX WTI $1.79 higher to settle at $41.35/b, m-o-m. Consequently, the BrentWTI spread widened slightly by 66¢, m-o-m, to average $2.63/b. The contango structure of crude oil futures prices flattened considerably in November, and prompt time-spreads of DME Oman flipped into backwardation in the second half of the month.
November 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $1.46, or 3.5%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $40.08/b in October. Year-to-date (y-t-d), the ORB averaged $40.57/b, or $23.34 lower than the same period last year. Crude oil futures prices extended losses, with oil market sentiment continuing to be dominated by concerns about the recovery in global oil demand, amid a sharp increase in the number of daily COVID-19 cases in several regions. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlantic settled lower in October. ICE Brent was down 35¢/b, m-o-m, to stand at $41.52/b, while NYMEX WTI edged 7¢ lower to settle at $39.55/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread narrow at just below $2/b. In terms of market structure, NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent and DME Oman were in sustained contango during October. Hedge funds and money managers in WTI slightly reduced their net long positions during the month, while in ICE Brent there was a slight increase in net long positions, albeit remaining at low levels, given the high uncertainty surrounding market outlooks.
October 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Spot crude prices settled significantly lower in September, after four consecutive months of gains. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $3.65, or 8.1% m-o-m, to $41.54/b, while the year-to-date averaged $40.62/b. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlantic declined during September, for the first time since April. ICE Brent was down 7.0% m-o-m, averaging at $41.87/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped 6.5% m-o-m, settling at $39.63/b. The Brent-WTI spread continued narrow at just over $2/b. All three futures market structures remained in contango during September, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures markets moving into a deeper contango, while the contango in DME Oman eased slightly. Hedge funds and other money managers were less bullish on the oil price outlook in September, and were net sellers of crude in both Brent and WTI.
September 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil spot prices extended gains in August, reaching a six-month high. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose in August, increasing more than other spot references. On a monthly basis, the ORB increased by $1.77 to $45.19/b, up by 4.1%. Crude oil futures prices rose further in August by about 4% m-o-m, supported by positive market sentiment, steadily improving market fundamentals, positive economic indicators, and a weaker US dollar. On a monthly average, the ICE Brent front month rose by $1.80, or 4.2%, to average $45.02/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $1.62, or 4.0%, to average $42.39/b. The price structures of the three main futures markets moved into a deeper contango. Hedge funds and other money managers showed no clear positioning trend in August amid the uncertain outlook on economic and oil demand recovery. The sweet/sour crude differential remained narrow in all markets.
August 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Spot crude oil prices rose further in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $43.42/b in July, gaining $6.37 over the previous month to reach its highest value since February this year. The ORB year-to-date average is $39.85/b. Crude oil futures also rose in July, again for the third consecutive month. ICE Brent ended the month $2.45 higher at $43.22/b, while NYMEX WTI rose by $2.45 to reach $40.77/b. The Brent-WTI spread remained unchanged at $2.46/b. Futures prices rose given continued improvement in oil market fundamentals and bullish economic data. All three futures market structures were in contango in July, with the forward curves steepening late in the month. Hedge funds and other money managers turned less positive on oil prices by the end of July, cutting their bullish bets on crude oil futures and options close to two-month lows.
July 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Spot crude oil prices continued rising in June for the second consecutive month, given the continued improvement in physical crude market fundamentals and gradual reductions in global supply overhang. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $11.88, m-o-m, to $37.05/b, up by 47.2%. In June, ICE Brent rose by $8.36, or 25.8%, to average $40.77/b, while NYMEX WTI rose by $9.79, or 34.3%, to average $38.31/b. The increase was driven by a drop in global oil surplus, signs of further improvements in oil market fundamentals, as well as prospects that the oil market would tighten further in 2H20. The contango structure of Brent and WTI continued to ease, while the DME Oman structure flipped into mild backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers slightly raised their bullish bets on futures and options contracts in June, amid concerns about the spike of COVID-19 cases worldwide and potential impact on economic activity and oil demand.
May 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
April 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
March 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value fell sharply in February, tumbling by about $10, or 15%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to settle at an average of $55.49/b, its lowest since September 2017. The ORB dropped further in March, to close at $34.71/b on 9 March. Similarly, ICE Brent fell in February by $8.20, or 12.9%, to average $55.48/b, while NYMEX WTI declined by $6.99, or 12.1%, to average $50.54/b.
February 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
The January OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value ended $1.38, or 2.1%, lower, month-on-month (m-o-m), averaging $65.10/b. In January, ICE Brent averaged $1.50, or 2.3%, m-o-m lower at $63.67/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped $2.28, or 3.8%, averaging $57.53/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $3.43, or 5.7%, higher at $63.67/b, while NYMEX WTI was up by $5.98, or 11.6%, at $57.53/b, compared to a year earlier.
January 2020 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $3.54, or 5.6%, month-on-month (m-o-m) in December, to average $66.48/b, the highest value since April 2019. Similarly, ICE Brent increased by $2.46, or 3.9%, m-o-m to average $65.17/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by $2.73, or 4.8%, m-o-m to average $59.80/b. Oil prices were supported by optimism about the outlook of oil market fundamentals, following easing trade tensions between the US and China and continued market stabilization efforts conducted under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). The market structure of all three crude benchmarks ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman remained in backwardation. Money managers increased their speculative net long positions on the back of more bullish sentiment.
December 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) price rose by $3.03, or 5.1%, month-on-month (m-o-m) in November settling at $62.94/b. In November, ICE Brent averaged $3.08, or 5.2%, higher m-o-m at $62.71/b, while NYMEX WTI rose by $3.06, or 5.7%, m-o-m averaging $57.07/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent averaged $8.79, or 12.1%, lower at $64.08/b, while NYMEX WTI declined by $9.48, or 14.3%, to $56.79/b, both compared to the same period a year earlier.
November 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $2.45, or 3.9%, month-on-month (m-o-m) in October to settle at $59.91/b. In October, ICE Brent was on average $2.65, or 4.3%, m-o-m lower at $59.63/b, and NYMEX WTI fell m-o-m by $2.96, or 5.2%, to average $54.01/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $9.37, or 12.7%, lower at $64.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI declined by $10.46, or 15.6%, to $56.76/b, compared with the same period a year earlier. The backwardation price structures of both ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened in October, mainly in prompt forward months, while the NYMEX WTI market structure was slightly in contango for most of October. Hedge funds and other money managers were more concerned about the outlook of crude oil prices in October than they had been in the previous month.
October 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose $2.74, or 4.6%, month-on-month (m-o-m) in September to settle at $62.36/b, supported by concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. In September, ICE Brent averaged $2.79, or 4.7%, m-o-m higher at $62.29/b, while NYMEX WTI rose m-o-m by $2.12, or 3.9%, to average $56.97/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $7.98, or 11.0%, y-o-y lower at $64.75/b, while NYMEX WTI declined by $9.69, or 14.5%, y-o-y to $57.10/b. Brent and Dubai crude oil forward price structures were in steep backwardation in September, while the WTI backwardation curve flattened slightly in the front end. Hedge funds and other money managers turned slightly positive on the outlook for crude oil prices compared to a month earlier.
September 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined $5.09, or 7.9%, to average $59.62/b. Crude oil futures prices also declined in August compared to the previous month. ICE Brent fell $4.71, or 7.3%, to average $59.50/b in August, and NYMEX WTI dropped by $2.70, or 4.7%, to average $54.84/b. Year-to-date, ICE Brent was $6.94, or 9.6%, lower compared to the same period last year, averaging $65.05/b, while NYMEX WTI declined by $9.31, or 14.0%, to average $57.12/b over the same period. All crude benchmark structures were in backwardation in August, with Brent and Dubai price structures steepening further. Hedge funds and other money managers slightly raised their net long positions for NYMEX WTI, but cut them for ICE Brent.
August 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged higher in July, up by $1.79, or 2.8%, m-o-m reaching $64.71/b, supported by a pick-up in Asian crude demand. Crude oil futures prices also rose from their low levels registered a month earlier as escalating geopolitical tensions offset bearish sentiment in global oil demand. In July, ICE Brent was $1.18, or 1.9%, m-o-m higher, averaging $64.21/b, while NYMEX WTI rose m-o-m by $2.84, or 5.2%, averaging $57.55/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was $5.85, or 8.2%, y-o-y lower at $65.87/b, while NYMEX WTI declined by $8.74, or 13.2%, to $57.46/b.
May 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $70.78/bbl in April, rose $4.41, or 6.6%, month-on-month (m-o-m).
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.6% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.2%.
World oil demand is anticipated reach 99.94 mb/d 2019.
Non-OPEC oil supply, growth in 2019 is now forecast to average 64.52 mb/d.
April 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $66.37/bbl in March, rose $2.54, or 4.0%, month-on-month (m-o-m).
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.6% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.2%.
World oil demand is anticipated reach 99.91 mb/d 2019, and exceed the 100.00 mb/d threshold during 2H19.
Non-OPEC oil supply, growth in 2019 is now forecast to average 64.54 mb/d.
March 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $63.83/bbl in February, rose $5.09, or 9.0%, month-on-month (m-o-m).
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.6% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.3%.
World oil demand is anticipated reach 99.96 mb/d in 2019.
Non-OPEC oil supply, growth in 2019 to average 64.43 mb/d.
January 2019 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $56.94/bbl in 2018, dropping $8.39, or 12.8%, month-on-month (m-o-m).
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.5%.
World oil demand is now pegged at 98.78 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.29 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 64.16 mil.bbl/d.
December 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $75.3/bbl in November, down by $14.06 month-on-month.
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.5%.
World oil demand expectations for total world consumption at 98.79 mil.bbl/d in 2018.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 60.03 mil.bbl/d.
November 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket to average $79.39/bbbl in October, the highest monthly average since October 2014.
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.5%.
World oil demand expectations for total world consumption at 98.79 mb/d in 2018.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 52.09 mb/d.
October 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket setting at $77.18/b in September, increased sharply by almost 7%.
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for 2018, the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%.
World oil demand expectations for total world consumption at 98.79 mb/d in 2018.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018, total non-OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.77 mb/d.
September 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket setting at $72.26/b in August.
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, followed by expected growth of 3.6% in 2019.
World oil demand, in 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.41 mb/d, with expectations for total world consumption at 98.82 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 2.02 mb/d, a downward revision of 64 tb/d.
August 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b in July.
World Economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, followed by expected growth of 3.6% in 2019.
World oil demand, in 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.64 mb/d, with expectations for total world consumption at 98.83 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply revised as average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y.
July 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket eased by 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in June to average $73.22/b.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, followed by expected growth of 3.6% in 2019.
World oil demand, in 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.65 mb/d, with expectations for total world consumption at 98.85 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2018 was revised up from the previous MOMR by 0.14 mb/d to average 59.54 mb/d.
June 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $74.11/b in May, rose by 8.5%.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand stood at 97.20 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.85 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast to average 59.75 mb/d.
May 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $68.43/b in April, rose by $4.67, or 7.3%.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand stood at 97.20 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.85 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast to average 59.62 mb/d.
April 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $63.76/b in March, increased by less than 0.5%.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand stood at 97.07 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.70 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast to average 59.61 mb/d.
March 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $63.48/b in February, Year-to-date, the ORB was $65.25/b.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand stood at 97.04 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.63 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast to average 59.53 mb/d. According to secondary sources, OPEC crude production decreased by 77 tb/d in February 2018, averaging 32.19 mb/d.
February 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $66.85/b in January, its highest since November 2014.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand stood at 97.01 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.60 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 was revised up by 0.07 mb/d, to average 57.86 mb/d, representing growth of 0.86 mb/d. For 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast was revised up by 0.32 mb/d, to average 59.26 mb/d.
January 2018 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $62.06/b in December, its highest since June 2015.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand is projected to grow at around 1.57 mb/d, averaging 96.99 mb/d for 2017.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2017 now stands at 0.77 mb/d, For 2018, non-OPEC supply growth was revised up by 0.16 mb/d to now stand at 1.15 mb/d.
December 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $60.74 in November, its highest since June 2015.
World economic growth forecast remains at 3.7% for both 2017 and 2018.
World oil demand is projected to grow at around 1.53 mb/d in 2017, in line with last month’s forecast.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2017 now stands at 0.81 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.15 mb/d from the previous report.
November 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50 in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and its highest value in more than two-and-a-half years.
World economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.7% from 3.6%, while the growth forecast for 2018 has been adjusted higher to 3.7% from 3.5%.
World oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d, representing an upward revision of around 130 tb/d from last previous report.
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.65 mb/d in 2017, following a downward revision of 0.02 m/bd from the previous report. In 2018.
October 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $53.44 in September, its highest value since July 2015.
World economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.6% from 3.5%, while the growth forecast for 2018 has been adjusted higher to 3.5% from 3.4%.
World oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.5 mb/d, representing an upward revision of around 30 tb/d from last previous report.
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2017, following a downward revision of 0.1 m/bd from the previous report. In 2018,
September 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $49.60/b in August, representing a gain of about 6%. Y-t-d, the Basket was almost 30.9% higher at $49.73/b.
World economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the growth forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 3.4%.
World oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.42 mb/d after an upward revision of around 50 tb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from the last month.
August 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket averaged $46.93/b in July, representing a gain of about 4% m-o-m. Y-t-d, the Basket was almost 34% higher at $49.75/b.
World economic in 2018 is forecast at 3.4%, the same level of growth forecast for 2017.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.37 mb/d, broadly unchanged from previous month, to average 96.49 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth was revised marginally lower to 0.78 mb/d in 2017, averaging 57.77 mb/d.
July 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket declined 8.1% in June to $45.21/b.
World economic in 2018 is forecast at 3.4%, the same level of growth forecast for 2017.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.27 mb/d, broadly unchanged from previous month, to average 96.4 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth was revised marginally lower to 0.80 mb/d in 2017, averaging 57.82 mb/d.
June 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket fell 4.2% in May to average $49.2.
World economic growth remains at 3.4% in 2017, compared to growth in 2016 of 3.1%.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d, total oil demand expected at 96.38 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply to grow by 0.84 mb/d, following a downward revision of 0.11 mb/d to average 58.14 mb/d.
May 2017 OPEC Report Highlight
OPEC Reference Basket rose 2.0% in April to average $51.34/b.
World economic growth remains at 3.3% in 2017, compared to growth in 2016 of 3.0%.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d, total oil demand expected at 96.38 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply to show growth of 0.95 mb/d, to average 58.3 mb/d.
April 2017 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month.
World economic: in the 2017 forecast to now stand at 3.3% from 3.2% previously, while growth for 2016 remains at 3.0%.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d, following an upward revision of 10 tb/d to average 96.32 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.58 mb/d, to average 57.89 mb/d.
March 2017 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket in February for the third consecutive month, ending up about 2% to average $53.37/b.
World economic: Global economic growth expectations remain at 3.0% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. OECD growth in 2017 is unchanged at 1.9%.
World oil demand for 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.26 mb/d, higher by 70 tb/d from previous month projections, to average 96.31 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d.
February 2017 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $52.40/b in January, representing a gain of 73¢ over the previous month.
World economic: Global economic growth expectations remain at 3.0% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. OECD growth in 2017 was revised up to 1.9%.
World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to increase by 1.32 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of 70 tb/d to reflect continued better-than-expected consumption in OECD Europe and Asia Pacific.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2016 has been revised up by 50 tb/d to now show a contraction of 0.66 mb/d on higher-than-expected output in 4Q16.
January 2017 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket jumped nearly 20% in December to $51.67/b, ending above $50/b for the first time in 18 months.
World economic growth for 2016 and 2017 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage point to stand at 3.0% and 3.2%, respectively.
World oil demand is expect to average 94.44 mb/d in 2016. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by a solid 1.16 mb/d y-o-y to average 95.60 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to show a contraction of 0.71 mb/d and the US. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.12 mb/d.
December 2016 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in October to $43.2/b, dropping by 10%. ICE Brent was down by 8.4% at $47.08/b and NYMEX WTI fell 8.4% to $45.76/b.
World economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.
World oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.24 mb/d to average 94.41 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.78 mb/d, expected to average 56.50 mb/d in 2017.
November 2016 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in October to $47.87/b, rose by $4.98. ICE Brent ended up $4.15 at $51.39/b and NYMEX WTI increased $4.71 to $49.94/b.
World economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.
World oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.23 mb/d to average 94.40 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.78 mb/d, following a downward revision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.20 mb/d.
October 2016 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in September to $42.89/b, down 21¢. ICE Brent ended up 8¢ at $47.24/b and NYMEX WTI increased 43¢ to $45.23/b.
World economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.
World oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.24 mb/d to average 94.40 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.68 mb/d, following a downward revision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.30 mb/d.
September 2016 Report Highlight
The OPEC Reference Basket rose 42¢ to $43.10/b in August. ICE Brent ended up 62¢ at $47.16/b, while NYMEX WTI was unchanged at $44.80/b.
World economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.
World oil demand growth in 2016 is now anticipated to increase by 1.23 mb/d after a marginal upward revision, mainly to reflect better-than-expected OECD data for the first half of the year.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.61 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.18 mb/d from the August MOMR to average 56.32 mb/d.
August 2016 Report Highlight
Crude Oil Price Movements: The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $42.68/b in July, representing the first decline in five months.
World Economy: World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.0% for 2016 and 3.1% for 2017. Weak first half GDP growth in the US caused a downward revision in the 2016 growth forecast to 1.7%, while the 2017 forecast remains at 2.1%.
World Oil Demand: World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to average 1.22 mb/d, some 30 tb/d higher than last month.
World Oil Supply: Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to contract by 0.79 mb/d in 2016, following an upward revision of 90 tb/d since the previous report, driven by higher-than-expected output in 2Q16 in the US and UK.
July 2016 Report Highlight
Crude Oil Price Movements: The OPEC Reference Basket increased by $2.63 to average $45.84/b in June.
World Economy: World economic growth for this year was revised down to 3.0% from 3.1%,
World Oil Demand: World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to be around 1.2 mb/d,
World Oil Supply: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is forecast to show a stronger contraction of 0.9 mb/d,
The outlook for the oil market in 2017
Global economic growth in 2017 is forecast at 3.1%, only slightly higher than this year’s growth level, which has been revised down to 3.0%. Following preliminary consideration of the potential effects of the UK’s referendum vote on leaving the EU, OECD growth is forecast to slow to 1.7% in the coming year from a downwardly-revised 1.8% in 2016. US growth is forecast to only slightly appreciate to 2.1% from 2.0% in 2016, while the Euro-zone is now forecast to slow to 1.2% from downwardly-adjusted 1.5% in the current year.