Built to last: Making sustainability a priority in transport infrastructure: Infrastructure is all around us—but how sustainable are the ways we build the airports, railways, and roads that keep things moving? By one projection, more than $2 trillion of transport infrastructure investments will be needed each year through 2040 to fuel economic development. And given the transport sector’s emissions levels are sizable, and still growing, there’s value to making sure any new investments are also geared for sustainable outcomes. So, is there a path to infrastructure that’s resilient to climate change, socially inclusive, technologically advanced, productive, and flexible? (Source: Mckinsey Daily Read)
TotalEnergies Expects Peak Oil Demand Before 2030 (27 September 2021): Global oil demand will plateau before the end of this decade and decline strongly after 2030, TotalEnergies said in its Energy Outlook 2021 unveiled on Monday. Previously, TotalEnergies had expected peak oil demand at some point around 2030, with a slow decline after that. The French supermajor presented two scenarios for global energy and oil demand to 2050—Momentum, a forward-looking scenario, and Rupture, a scenario in which the world could reach well-below 2 degrees Celsius global warming compared to pre-industrial levels. The Momentum scenario includes the acceleration of current market trends and the commitment of countries to net-zero emissions by 2050. The scenario assumes China’s emissions reaching their peak in the middle of the 2020s, and the country achieving around 60 percent decarbonization by 2050. (Source: Oil Price)
Hydrogen Will Play A Key Role In The Gulf’s Energy Transition (26 September 2021): By Oxford Business Group - With hydrocarbon-rich countries in the Gulf increasingly looking to reduce their carbon emissions, some in the region are turning towards multi-coloured hydrogen as a more environmentally sustainable solution. Along with renewable sources like solar and wind, hydrogen is seen as a potential low-carbon or zero-carbon fuel that is key to the transition away from fossil fuels. However, it is important to note that there are different types of hydrogen with different impacts on the environment. For example, blue hydrogen is created when natural gas undergoes a steam reforming process. Although this process also produces CO2, the vast majority of it is captured and stored, subsequently producing a low-carbon fuel. (Source: Oil Price)
Hydrogen Fueled Cars Are Making A Comeback (23 September 2021): By Felicity Bradstock - The race is on for car manufacturers to bring out their own range on electric vehicles (EV). But what if the new kid on the block ends up taking over? Honda, Hyundai, and Toyota are among the major firms now testing out hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in their production lines to see which proves the most successful. Car manufacturers are competing to produce the most efficient vehicles that do not rely on traditional fuels such as petroleum and diesel, as part of the international push to tackle climate change through decarbonization. Many see EVs as the answer, as the battery technology is tried and tested, and brands such as Tesla have put EVs in the public eye for years. But a lesser number of car manufacturers are now considering hydrogen FCEVs as the way forward. (Source: Oil Price)
UK Could See Gas Prices As High As $1250 Per MWh (22 September 2021): By Felicity Bradstock - The UK’s gas crisis comes as part of a bigger natural gas phenomenon taking place worldwide, as prices skyrocket and firms do not know to respond. With Europe and North America looking to shift away from reliance on fossil fuels to renewable alternatives, will it be possible to make the switch sooner or will we continue to rely on gas even as it becomes less financially viable? As gas prices soar across the whole of Europe, reaching their highest levels since 2014, the UK gas industry has been particularly hard hit. Some major contributors to the trend include greater competition for deliveries of natural gas between Europe and Asia, outages at U.S. production plants following Hurricane Ida, and stricter carbon market rules within the E.U. In addition, gas inventories have already depleted more rapidly this year thanks to an extremely cold European winter and the strong energy demand rebound seen with the easing of Covid restrictions. (Source: Oil Price)
China Back To Stockpiling Crude As Refinery Runs Hit 15-Month Low (16 September 2021): By Tsvetana Paraskova - China is estimated to have sent around 760,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to its strategic and commercial reserves in August, as refinery throughput in the world’s top oil importer slumped to the lowest in 15 months. Last month, China reversed four months of estimated draws from its inventories, mostly as a result of the low refinery volumes, according to estimates of Reuters columnist Clyde Russell based on official Chinese data. Refinery runs in China fell to 13.74 million bpd in August – the lowest in 15 months, on the back of a sizeable cut in fuel export quotas and the latest wave of Covid-19. The decline in refinery run rates came amid a government crackdown on independent refiners—the so-called teapots. These teapots have come to account for a considerable portion of oil imports and fuel exports, which have contributed to a regional fuel glut that pushed down refiners’ margins. (Source: Oil Price)
The Major Beneficiary Of The Afghanistan Crisis (15 September 2021): By Global Risk Insights - Assertive Foreign Policy proves Costly It is clear that the post-Cold War order is shifting. The costly wars of Afghanistan and Iraq are calling into question the pre-eminence of the United States in international security affairs. Russia shows no fear to act outside its borders and China is in a good position to become the world’s largest economy. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, eyes an opportunity to cement his grip on power by transforming Turkey into a key regional player in the emerging multipolar system. The instability following the Arab Spring in 2011 provided Erdogan with a regional environment where he could tap into Turkish nationalist sentiments and shore up his domestic political standing. Following his intervention in northeastern Syria, Erdogan successfully negotiated an agreement with Russia on removing Kurdish fighters along the southern Turkish border. Similarly, in Libya, Ankara became a key mediator by facilitating a long-term peace settlement with Moscow. Turning to the issue of Cypriot energy resources, the Turkish backing of the UN-sanctioned Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli placed Ankara in a strong position to determine maritime boundary demarcation. (Source: Oil Price)
IEA Sees Robust Oil Demand In October (14 September 2021): By Tsvetana Paraskova - After three consecutive months of declines due to the Delta variant, global oil demand is set to rebound with a 1.6-million-bpd jump in October and continue rising through the end of the year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday. In its closely watched Oil Market Report, the agency slightly revised down its full-year 2021 demand growth projection, but noted that pent-up demand and vaccine programs are expected to give rise to “a robust rebound” in global oil demand from the fourth quarter of this year. The IEA now sees oil demand growing worldwide by 5.2 million bpd in 2021, down by 110,000 bpd compared to the forecast in last month’s assessment. In the August report, the agency expected oil demand to rise by 5.3 million bpd in 2021 and by another 3.2 million bpd in 2022. A month ago, the IEA said that mobility restrictions in Asia to fight the Delta variant were set to slow global oil demand growth in the second half of 2021. (Source: Oil Price)
Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here (13 September 2021): By Alex Kimani - Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6% to $5.09 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since February 2014. Natural gas prices are up 117.6% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is up 88.6% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $18 per MMBtu. (Source: Oil Price)
The Solar Boom Has A Supply Chain Problem (12 September 2021): By Rystad Energy - Grid parity, resilient networks and strategic partnerships have spurred growth in the world’s solar panel manufacturing capacity in recent years, to 330 gigawatts (GW) in mid-2021. A Rystad Energy analysis reveals that to meet the 1.5°C 2050 scenario under the Paris Agreement, capacity has to quadruple to 1,200-1,400 GW by 2035 to handle the peak installations needed. This will be a challenging task, however, as manufacturers now see their utilization plummet due to rising costs and Covid-19 – a turn of events that could discourage the investments needed to expand capacity further. The aggregated utilization rate for solar modules (the difference between manufacturing capacity and shipments) was 84% in 2018 and has been decreasing since, to 71% in 2019 and to 58% in 2020, when logistics efficiency and transportation was hampered by the pandemic in most parts of the world. The spread of Covid-19 has created a major economic disruption in the market and is expected to continue to impact utilization rates for most of 2021. (Source: Oil Price)
Can China Succeed Where America Failed In Afghanistan? (9 September 2021): By Global Risk Insights - China’s long-standing policy of non-interference is challenged by the cruel geopolitical realities and developments in the country with which it shares its smallest border. The U.S. military withdrawal, coupled with Afghanistan’s seizure by the Taliban, have marked a major turning point, presenting China with both opportunities and challenges. It seems Beijing can no longer afford to stay away from the region. Ending U.S. direct involvement in a war that cost 2,400 U.S. military lives and more than $3 trillion was one of the few points of convergence between Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump. Following a bilateral agreement in Doha between the Trump Administration and the Taliban in February 2020, a timetable for the U.S. withdrawal was set, in exchange for the Taliban’s promises to relaunch peace talks with the Afghan government. Approximately 90% of the U.S. troops’ withdrawal has already taken place. (Source: Oil Price)
An Extremely Low-Tech Solution To Our Energy Storage Problem (8 September 2021): By Haley Zaremba - In the past decade, renewable energies have advanced leaps and bounds and dramatically dropped in price. Wind and solar have become scalable, tradable as commodities, and have even outgrown their government subsidies as they become increasingly competitive with fossil fuels. Renewables are ready to take center stage in the urgent fight against climate change and have shown themselves to be capable of displacing fossil fuels. But there are still some major hurdles in the path towards a completely renewable world, and the biggest of those is energy storage. Renewable energies like wind and solar power are variable -- meaning that the amount of energy output fluctuates over time. As these forms of energy production are dependent on the weather and whether the sun is shining, it stands to reason that their flow of energy to the grid is marked by peaks and valleys. What’s more, renewable energy output is often at odds with energy demand. For example, as it gets dark and solar panels stop absorbing the sun’s rays, everyone starts turning on their lights, sucking energy from the grid at the same time that solar farms stop producing it. (Source: Oil Price)
Merger Mania Is Back In North America’s Oil Patch (7 September 2021): By Tsvetana Paraskova - The oil and gas industry is back in consolidation mode after a low point in the spring of 2020 during the worst of the oil price and demand collapse. The pace of upstream mergers and acquisitions is back to pre-crisis levels. And it is North America that leads the consolidation drive as shale firms look to lower costs, use synergies, boost cash flows, and give more money back to shareholders. Analysts expect the consolidation in the U.S. shale patch to continue after deal-making accelerated in the second quarter of 2021. U.S. exploration and production companies continue to be under investor pressure to reduce debts and spend wisely on drilling while healing balance sheets and preparing to withstand potential future price collapses. (Source: Oil Price)
India Is Running Out Of Coal (6 Sepember 2021): By Haley Zaremba - Just a few weeks ago Oilprice reported that India is nowhere near ready to kick fossil fuels. As the country’s population continues to grow and more and more Indians join ranks of the middle class, the country’s energy demand is set to far outpace its renewable energy capacity. In fact, it’s going to take all of the fossil fuels as well as renewable energy the nation has just to keep up with demand. Now, new reports are showing that as India’s economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic and the nation eases restrictions, the nation’s energy demand has skyrocketed so quickly that India is scrambling to import coal as their own producers come up short. Nearly a fifth of the entire global population lives in India. While the rate of growth has slowed down considerably in recent years, the subcontinent’s population continues to expand. What’s more, each year more and more Indians are enjoying more disposable income and access to goods and services than ever before, driving up the subcontinent’s voracious hunger for energy in any form. (Source: Oil Price)
Weaponizing Carbon Dioxide In The 21st Century (4 September 2021): By Fernando C. Hernandez - In the 20th century, oil became a major geopolitical weapon, most notably during OPEC’s 1973 oil embargo which caused a cataclysm shift in global power relations. OPEC continues to utilize this weapon to influence policy in the 21st century. Today, however, we are witnessing the development of another energy-related weapon that OPEC does not control: CO2. The power of CO2 was recently displayed by China when it signaled to the U.S. that it would not comply with its climate and decarbonization efforts if the U.S. continued accusing China of genocide. At the same time, China is increasing its reliance on coal, which will impact the global emissions targets set by Net Zero nations and allies. Notably, atmospheric CO2 from emitting countries is not beholden to terrestrial land borders. (Source: Oil Price)
Biden Could Give Rare Earth Miners A Major Boost (2 September 2021): By Alex Kimani - A global shortage in semiconductor chips has been wreaking havoc on diverse sectors, including the tech, automotive, consumer electronics industries, and everything in between. After years of tepid demand, the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a huge tech buying spree, with manufacturers of personal computers, tablets, laptops, and gaming consoles caught off guard. The automotive industry has so far been the hardest hit by the chip shortage, leading several leading automakers to slash production. But the pandemic and the green energy revolution have now triggered yet another commodity crisis: a global shortage in rare earths. Indeed, a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned the world will fall short of its climate goals unless there is a sharp increase in the supply of metals required to produce solar panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and other clean energy technologies. (Source: Oil Price)
Oil-Producing Countries Need Support In Net-Zero Scenario (1 September 2021): By Charles Kennedy - Oil-producing countries need international support to diversify and lessen their dependence on oil revenues if the world has any hope of reaching net-zero emissions, Iraq’s finance minister and the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) say. “To meet climate targets and avoid economic collapse, countries such as Iraq need international support in the transition to clean energy,” Iraq’s deputy prime minister and finance minister Ali Allawi and Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, wrote in an opinion piece in The Guardian. If the major oil nations, such as OPEC’s second-largest producer Iraq, see their oil revenues plunge before their economies have diversified, poverty will increase, and livelihoods will be lost, Allawi and Birol said. (Source: Oil Price)